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A Royal Navy Sea King Mk4 helicopter is pictured on an operation over Helmand Province, Afghanistan Photographer: POA(Phot) Mez Merrill (via ...
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David Parkins illustrates our briefing on the Grand Old Party. Despite becoming more extremist and obstructionist, the Republicans triumphed in...
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Among the dinosaurs. Almost everywhere the European left is in decline; France is the only big place where they have a good chance of returning to...
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NATO: combat air patrols over Libya to continue until all pro-Gadhafi forces surrender
From the AP: NATO will continue its combat air...
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Sarkozy: France to stay to the end in Libya
From the AP: French President Nicolas Sarkozy says his country will stick with the...
[caption id=”attachment_18649” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta appears on ABC’s This Week, May 27”][/caption]
American defense secretary Leon Panetta said on Sunday that the United States are prepared to launch military action to prepare Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. “We have plans to be able to implement any contingency we have to in order to defend ourselves.”
In an interview with ABC News’ This Week, Panetta insisted that “neither the United States or the international community is going to allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.”
Panetta responded to statements made earlier in the week by America’s ambassador to Israel, Daniel Shapiro, who disclosed that plans have already been made for military action.
“It would be preferable to solve this diplomatically and through the use of pressure, than to use military force,” said Shapiro. “But that doesn’t mean that option isn’t fully available. Not just available, it’s ready.”
Israel is particularly anxious about the Iranian nuclear program because it considers a bomb an existential threat to the Jewish state. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad once said that Israel should be wiped off the map.
Iran claims that the purpose of its uranium enrichment program is peaceful—-to produce energy and medical isotopes.
World powers failed to reach an agreement with Iran on the future of its enrichment program in Baghdad this week. Further talks are scheduled for June in Moscow.
Panetta was quoted in The Washington Post in February as saying that he expects Israel to launch unilateral air strikes against Iran’s prime nuclear sites before June when Israel expects Iran to enter a “zone of immunity” to commence building a bomb. At this stage, the Muslim country would have enough fissile material, stored underground, to produce a weapon with impunity.
[caption id=”attachment_18629” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”The city of Chongqing, China, September 7, 2010 (Wilson Loo Kok Wee)”]
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China’s Communist Party reformers appear to have gained the upper hand since the ousting of popular Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai but in the city that he ruled for five years, his legacy endures.
Bo’s populist and neo-Maoist style of socialism in Chongqing contrasted with the party’s ideology which has drifted toward liberalism in the past twenty years. Moreover, his approach to governance challenged the model of party consensus and stability that China’s leaders have upheld to ensure smooth leadership transitions.
In anticipation of a routine shakeup at the top of the Communist Party hierarchy, Bo, eying a seat on the Politburo’s decision making body, was purged two months ago, allegedly for abuse of power and amid a scandal that saw his wife charged for the murder of a British businessmen.
The careers of five of Bo’s allies in the top ranks of army, who were expected to be elevated to the Central Military Commission, are also in jeopardy.
Reuters learned that outgoing Chinese president Hu Jintao urged senior party officials in Beijing early this month to stifle tensions over Bo’s removal and show unity as they prepare for a change of leadership. Hu declared Bo’s downfall an “isolated case” but clearly, there is an ideological struggle going on between liberal reformers like Premier Wen Jiabao and hardline leftists who also tend to be more hawkish on foreign policy.
To what extent President Hu can be included in the former camp remains a mystery. He doesn’t speak out much and that’s probably how Hu keeps a lid on dissent. Also unclear is just how much of a struggle is going on behind the scenes and how many of Bo adherent there are.
Bo did have a following among leftists who embraced what they viewed as his model of egalitarian growth and they have continued to defend him as the victim of a plot. He used Chongqing, a provincial municipality in southwest China, as a showcase for left leaning policies.
Those policies were repudiated by Premier Wen in March when he warned that the “tragedy” that was China’s Cultural Revolution “may happen again”—-an oblique reference to Bo’s neo-Maoist tendencies.
Now, one of the country’s most reform minded provincial chieftains, Wang Yang of Guangdong, China’s largest province on the southern coast, apparently stands to benefit from Bo’s removal.
Wang has experimented with freer markets and local democracy in Guangdong and is critical of state control. “We must get rid of the misconception that the people’s happiness is a gift from the party and government,” he said this month. Wang may hope to secure a more powerful spot on the Politburo now that Bo is gone.
If Chongqing and Guangdong are showcases of alternate models for China’s development, it’s notable that both are prospering except the former is laden with debt as Bo financed growth on credit and doled out funds to his cronies in state owned enterprises.
Yet Bo’s legacy endures. The Washington Post reports that in Chongqing, he still garners admiration and respect from his people. High levels of public spending on construction and social welfare programs are also likely to continue in spite of Bo’s fall from grace.
China’s next generation of leadership is expected to continue the course of the Hu-Wen Administration, if not at the pace that Wang has been able to in Guangdong.
The party congress, scheduled to be held late this year, will in all likelihood elevate the technocratic vice president Xi Jinping to the presidency while Wen Jiabao is slated to be succeeded by Vice Premier Li Keqiang.
Bo may be out of the picture but the ideological divide at China’s core remains. Even if the next generation is able to take over without much of a fuss, its members will have to constantly look over their shoulders to ensure that there is unity in their ranks. The ghost of Bo Xilai will haunt them and it should.
[caption id=”attachment_18632” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”President Tomislav Nikolić of Serbia”]
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During his first foreign trip as president, Tomislav Nikolić told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Saturday that Serbia is on a “long and uncertain” path to joining the European Union and will not surrender its claim to breakaway province Kosovo for the sake of membership.
The nationalist Nikolić was elected earlier this month in a runoff election against liberal leader Boris Tadić. Tadić could yet become prime minister because his pro-European Democratic Party did win a parliamentary majority.
On the campaign trail, Nikolić proclaimed himself in favor of membership. “The European Union is our goal,” he said. “We want the EU if the EU wants us.” Members of his populist Serbian Progressive Party were loyal to President Slobodan Milošević during the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s however, sparking fears in the West that he will take the country in a more pro-Russian direction.
Although recognition of Kosovo, which has a majority ethnic Albanian population, as an independent state is not a condition for Serbian membership, Brussels does urge Belgrade to “normalize relations” with its former southern province. Serbia considers the region the cradle of Serb civilization. Even Tadić ruled out ever giving it up.
Russia as well as five European Union members do not recognize Kosovo as a sovereign country. Most European states, Turkey and the United States do.
Kosovo tried to assert independence in the late 1990s which prompted the Milošević Government in Belgrade to send in military forces to suppress the uprising. NATO responded by bombing the Serbs which compelled them to withdraw their troops and accept a ten year period of United Nations administration in the territory.
Russia criticized NATO’s bombing campaign of Serbia in 1999 and shares an ethnic and religious heritage with the country. “We see Serbia as our spiritual brothers,” is how Putin put it on Saturday.
[caption id=”attachment_18583” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”An F-16 fighter jet in service with the Republic of China Air Force prepares for takeoff, September 30, 2011 (Al Jazeera English)”]
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The House of Representatives in the United States ordered the sale of more advanced F-16 multirole fighters to Taiwan this month. The move, a big step forward for Taiwan in preparing for the future, may be precedent setting in more ways than one and could inspire new thinking in both Beijing and Taipei.
While the sale of warplanes to Taiwan is yet to be approved by the Senate and the president, congressional success in the lower house represents a breakthrough for those Republican leaders in Washington who have long favored greater military and financial support for the island based Republic of China.
Until now, the White House has been reluctant to play too large of a role in helping the government in Taipei develop its military capabilities, arguing that the country’s strategic situation was not dire enough to merit enraging mainland China and risk the collapse of presently friendly relations.
It is certainly the case that American support of Taiwan has not been nonexistent. Last year, President Barack Obama ok’ed a $5.2 billion plan to upgrade Taiwan’s 145 strong fleet of F-16s fighters, a plane that has been operational since the 1990s and is increasingly unable to match the more advanced modern technologies being installed on the aircraft of the People’s Republic of China.
However, the administration has consistently refused to consider new equipment purchases, ignoring the pleas of the pro-Taiwan lobby in Washington at the time to consider the sale of submarines, advanced fighters and other assets seen as vital to balancing against China.
That being said, the balance of opinions in the American capital may be changing. Though not necessarily linked to the House’s decision to sell, the Pentagon’s recently released annual assessment of the military strength of mainland China has surely galvanized support among those concerned for Taiwanese security prospects.
In describing Chinese advances in amphibious and ballistic missile technologies, the report focuses on China’s maturing anti-intervention capabilities, particularly those forces that could suppress Taiwan’s defense systems in a future assault while, at the same time, effectively preventing American reinforcements from rendering aid.
Given the Pentagon’s appraisal, it is easy to see why the sale of new, more capable fighters to Taiwan could alter the balance of capabilities in the Straits in years to come.
Most importantly, it is easy to see how authorities in Beijing, already voicing their disapproval of the House’s decision, could adopt a more standoffish approach to cross-Straits relations in the future.
However, the sale of General Dynamic’s fighter may go beyond reaffirming America’s commitment to securing Taiwan and could do more that just pave the way for frosty relations with the China. Indeed, the sale hints at possible future interactions between Taipei and Washington that could, given the goal of appropriately arming the island against the Chinese threat, cause leaders in Beijing to rethink strategies involving reunification entirely.
One dangerous precedent being set by the sale of advanced F-16 fighters is that of availability. If lawmakers in Washington can be persuaded that Taiwan’s situation is dire, then future sales may bring the island’s armed forces capabilities at the cutting edge of modern weaponry. The purchase of craft like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and cutting edge ballistic defense systems could significantly neutralize mainland China’s abilities to quickly strike Taiwan, with missile interceptors countering the mainland’s airborne first strike forces and short takeoff planes allowing Taiwan’s air force to operate even beyond the destruction of conventional military facilities.
Such new sales could even happen in the near term. After all, with access to both upgrades for existing F-16s and the opportunity to purchase new advanced variants, Taipei’s defense bill is creeping higher and higher.
It might make more sense to abandon one or the other in favor of procuring advanced platforms that, ultimately, will allow the island to compete with China on a more even footing than would ever have been possible flying legacy craft.
Regardless of the shape of deals to come, however, it is fairly clear that America’s latest move is precedent setting beyond what is normal in cross-Straits relations. Sure, it seems plausible to predict a period of frostiness with China similar to those experienced after previous weapons sales. But here, ultimately, there is the potential for a much bigger shift in strategic thinking.
Access to new forces changes the trend in increasingly unbalanced capabilities that has characterized that part of the world for many years. If Taiwan is finally getting what it needs to compete militarily with mainland China, Beijing will need to look more closely at the feasibility of reunification and reassess the steps needed to get there.
[caption id=”attachment_18587” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”Egyptian presidential candidate Ahmed Shafik poses for a portrait photo, November 28, 2011”]
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The Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate Mohamed Morsi appears certain to head into the second round of Egypt’s presidential election while former aviation minister Ahmed Shafik could claim second place.
Egyptians headed to the polls on Wednesday and Thursday for the first free presidential election in more than half a century. Because no candidate emerged with an absolute majority, there will be a runoff next month.
Although full results aren’t in yet from Cairo and Giza, two of Egypt’s largest cities, polls suggest a win for the Islamist candidate and a member of the old regime in stark contrast to the expectations of the liberal revolutionaries who took to Tahrir Square last year and forced the resignation of strongman Hosni Mubarak. A Shafik spokesman told The New York Times, “The revolution has ended.”
Voters flocked to Shafik to “save Egypt from the dark forces,” as his spokesman put it, referring to the Brotherhood and more militant Islamists.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s political wing won almost a parliamentary majority in December of last year and is now clearly the dominant political force in Egypt.
In Mubarak’s days, the Brotherhood was banned as a political organization but operated as a charity. Its fast rise has unsettled Christian and secular voters who fear an Islamist takeover. Shafik was apparently deemed the safer choice to protect the secular nature of Egypt’s republic, more so than former Arab League chairman Amr Moussa who was expected to do well.
Shafik was briefly prime minister in the dying days of Mubarak’s reign. Despite his association with the old regime, he drew votes from Egypt’s Coptic Christian minority and conservative Muslims yearning for stability.
[caption id=”attachment_18576” align=”alignright” width=”300” caption=”A Reaper drone aircraft lands in Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 5, 2011 (Flag Officer Owen Cheverton/Defence Images)”]
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The Yemeni military reported on Thursday that it had killed thirty-five Al Qaeda militants in overnight battles in the restive southern Abyan Governorate of the country. Islamic militants said to have taken control of the province in March of last year and established an emirate there.
The offensive in the south is ongoing days after a suicide bomber killed more than ninety people at a military parade rehearsal in the capital of Sana’a. Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attack.
Earlier this year, four Yemeni soldiers were also killed in a suicide attack at a checkpoint in the south. Whether the militant group that claimed responsibility at the time was affiliated with Al Qaeda is still unclear. It said that the bombing was in retribution for American drone air strikes.
Yemen’s president Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi, who took over from strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh in November of last year, has taken the fight to Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations with renewed vigor.
Daniel R. DePetris wrote at the Atlantic Sentinel last month that Yemen’s armed forces, “once beaten and bruised by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, are taking back the land it lost only a few months earlier, launching air strikes on terrorist bases daily and sending in reinforcements to drive the group away from villages that were converted into Al Qaeda havens.”
The United States have used drone assets and warplanes to augment the Yemeni Government’s offensive. American planes have fired more missiles in Yemen this year than at any time since 2002. This involvement comes at a price though. It has fueled the propaganda of radical Islamists and possibly drawn Iran into the fight.
The New York Times reported in March that Iran had apparently increased its political outreach and arms shipments to Yemeni militants.
Iranian smugglers backed by the Quds Force, an elite international operations unit within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, are using small boats to ship AK-47s, rocket propelled grenades and other arms to replace older weapons used by the rebels.
The newspaper cautioned that the scale of Iranian involvement remained unclear. Saudi Arabia, Iran’s nemesis, and its allies have a long history of alleging that Tehran has a hand in Middle Eastern uprisings.
Complicating the situation in Yemen is the presence of a separate uprising in the north of the country. The separatist movement there is not only a threat to the central government but also to Sunni regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia because of its Shī’ah nature. The governments of Saudi Arabia and Yemen both in fact have reason to allege Al Qaeda involvement in the north to engage the United States there militarily.
